All Eyes On Release Of Macroeconomic Data, Their Impact On Indian Equity Market

The current week promises to be dynamic both for the global and Indian markets, driven as they by the expected key macroeconomic data releases and US President Donald Trump’s decision to impose reciprocal tariffs on other countries. Market sentiment will be shaped by PMI data, GDP growth, retail sales and inflation data. Interestingly, India’s composite PMI preliminary data for March, released on Monday, which was forecast at 59.1, was expected to be crucial for driving market sentiment. In reality, this decreased to 58.60 points in March from 58.80 points in February. Composite PMI in India averaged 53.30 points from 2013 until 2025, reaching an all-time high of 61.90 points in July 2023 and a record low of 7.20 points in April 2020.

In India, composite output refers to weighted average of the Manufacturing Output Index and the Services Business Activity Index. Meanwhile, the United States House Price Index for January is set to be released on Tuesday. This measures month over month changes in average prices of single-family houses that is forecast to be 0.3 per cent, which is less compared to December, which stood at 0.4 per cent.

Additionally New Home Sales MoM for February is set to be released on Tuesday, and it is projected to grow by 0.5 per cent compared to 10.5 per cent decline in January. The UK Inflation Rate MoM for February is set to be released on Wednesday. It is expected to rise by 0.3 per cent indicating rising cost prices of goods and services compared to a decline of 0.1 per cent in January. Nearer home, the India deposit growth data will be released on Friday. The Indian equity markets posted strong gains last week, with the Nifty 50 surging 4.26 per cent to close at 23,350.40, while the BSE Sensex advanced 4.17 per cent, settling at 76,905.51. Financial stocks outperformed, as the Nifty Bank rallied 5.27 per cent and the Nifty Financial Services index rose 5.49 per cent, reaffirming the sector’s dominance as the largest contributor to the Nifty 50. The market's uptrend was primarily driven by technical buying and value accumulation from key demand zones, rather than any major fundamental shifts.

However, concerns over global macroeconomic headwinds and trade tariffs persist. FIIs turned net buyers, capitalising on attractive valuations and fueling the market's momentum. Significantly, Nifty Bank has decisively moved above key moving averages, while the Nifty 50 remains just below its 200-day EMA. On the global front, US policymakers acknowledged rising economic uncertainties but reiterated their expectation of a 50-basis-point rate cut this year, in line with their December projections. Meanwhile, broader market sentiment improved, with the Nifty Midcap and Smallcap indices gaining 7.8 per cent and 8.5 per cent, respectively. In terms of institutional activity, FIIs recorded a net inflow of Rs. 5,819 crore in the cash segment, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) injected Rs. 4,337.80 crore, further supporting the market's rally. So all eyes will be on the ensuing macro-economic data releases, and how they play out in the Indian equity market.